Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Banditry in markets

It's funny when one of your professors calls another one a bandit behind his back. Hehe (I can't but be reminded of Cartman by my reaction.)

We were on the topic of dumb assets to own and suddenly the subject of Wisdom Tree Investments came up. I had interviewed with them, but decided not to pursue it any further because there was an unsettling feeling in my stomach that what I was looking at was a one trick pony trying unsuccessfully to turn two. The management fees they charge are high, but not totally unreasonable for the business.

"Wisdom Tree Investments... well, I don't know how Jeremy got involved with those bandits..."

GOLD! Yang and I were chuckling like two Cartmans in the back of the room. Great lecture.

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Sunday, November 25, 2007

Thanksgiving Break, airplanes, and dumb questions

Ate turkey. Went to the Ozarks. Flew in a homebuilt plane. The landing was a bit rough, but the overall experience was rather enjoyable.

I asked Bill how often do these small planes crash. He gave me the strangest look and said, "Well, usually, just once."

I'm definitely, going back there again. Not to fly, just to fish. Yes, fishing will be awesome.

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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Stealing Alpha

I occasionally peruse sites like seekingalpha and it just struck me that it would be more apt to call sites like these stealing alpha or something similar to that. The motivation for this name change would be because if you really think about it, this is really what alpha is.

Consider a market with three participants. One holds a portfolio containing all the elements comprising the market weighted according to their value. One holds the set of market elements such that his/her portfolio returns more than that of portfolio of the person holding the market. What does this leave the third person holding? The parts of the market that under-perform the market of course! Expand to n market participants, etc, etc. (Waves hand dismissively)

I guess all this time I never really thought about market returns as an accounting equations. Perhaps this is because I am not an accountant. This conceptualization appeals to me greatly. Even if it not entirely possible to hold a pure "market" portfolio all the time, it it possible even for retail investors to get quite close with the kinds of financial products available today. The next time I think about building strategies that return in excess of market, I must check to see if I can answer the question: who am I stealing this alpha from?

Note: this is of course being taken in the context of a constantly growing pie.

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Monday, November 05, 2007

Lingqiu Recollections Part 5

Lingqiu Recollections: Part 1, Part2, Part 3, Part 4

Tang Jie talks about many of the problems and difficulties that he faces managing the application process. First, many people are too discouraged to even apply for this loan due to the fact that it is a government sponsored program. This is because they believe that the process will be too bureaucratic and burdensome – a notion that has arisen from the difficulty of borrowing from other formal financial channels such as from the Big Four banks.


Second, Tang Jie talks about the homogeneity of the loan applicants’ businesses. He speaks of the need to diversify the businesses supported by the loans because most of these businesses serve the local market exclusively, which means that too many similar businesses, such as pig farming, will end up competing too fiercely with each other over market share and drive down profits. This will have a negative impact on their business development and ability to repay loans.

Another problem that Tang Jie cites is that many of the people who apply for loans do not really need them. That is to say, giving them the money does not dramatically help them because their enterprises already have a good amount of cashflow and credit. Those really grassroots startups that really need the seed money do not come to them for funding. This is due to many reasons not the least of which is the general distrust and disillusionment towards the government. Since this fund is a government program, people instinctively think that there will be a lot of hassle trying to secure a loan. However, the reality is that the loan process is a lot simpler when compared to say, a bank or credit cooperative.


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Sunday, November 04, 2007

Untitled, plainest day

Birthday:

Present:

Jay Chou's newest album: On the Run, Wo henmang

Most Awesome lyrics: Blue Vase, Huaqingci

The metaphor! The metaphor! I will post on why I absolutely love each verse in the future. Fang Wenshan really outdid himself this time.

青花瓷

素胚勾勒出青花笔锋浓转淡
瓶身描绘的牡丹一如你初妆
冉冉檀香透过窗心事我了然
宣纸上 走笔至此搁一半
釉色渲染仕女图韵味被私藏
而你嫣然的一笑如含苞待放
你的美一缕飘散
去到我去不了的地方

天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
炊烟袅袅升起 隔江千万里
在瓶底书汉隶仿前朝的飘逸
就当我为遇见你伏笔
天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
月色被打捞起 晕开了结局
如传世的青花瓷自顾自美丽
你眼带笑意

色白花青的锦鲤跃然於碗底
临摹宋体落款时却惦记着你
你隐藏在窑烧里千年的秘密
极细腻 犹如绣花针落地
帘外芭蕉惹骤雨 门环惹铜绿
而我路过那江南小镇惹了你
在泼墨山水画里
你从墨色深处被隐去

天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
炊烟袅袅升起 隔江千万里
在瓶底书汉隶仿前朝的飘逸
就当我为遇见你伏笔
天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
月色被打捞起 晕开了结局
如传世的青花瓷自顾自美丽
你眼带笑意

天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
炊烟袅袅升起 隔江千万里
在瓶底书汉隶仿前朝的飘逸
就当我为遇见你伏笔
天青色等烟雨 而我在等你
月色被打捞起 晕开了结局
如传世的青花瓷自顾自美丽
你眼带笑意

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