Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Free Rice - Guesstimate!
Genius. The person who came up with this one ought to get a raise. I would write a bot that plays this game all day. Would that be unethical??
A quick calculation:
About 503,171,410 grains of rice have been donated thus far.
There are about 29,000 grains of long grain rice in 1 pound and 3-4 times as many for short grain rice. This means that there has been 17,251 lbs or 8.67 tons donated thus far. This is a pittance. A standard marine container (the stuff you see stacked like legos at ports) can carry around 62,000 lbs net. You can't even fill 1/3 of a container with the amount donated thus far with long grain rice!
A quick calculation:
About 503,171,410 grains of rice have been donated thus far.
There are about 29,000 grains of long grain rice in 1 pound and 3-4 times as many for short grain rice. This means that there has been 17,251 lbs or 8.67 tons donated thus far. This is a pittance. A standard marine container (the stuff you see stacked like legos at ports) can carry around 62,000 lbs net. You can't even fill 1/3 of a container with the amount donated thus far with long grain rice!
Monday, October 22, 2007
Harris @ Aspen
This year's Aspen Ideas Festival took place on July 2-8, 2007.
Sam Harris gave a talk in which he made mention of Issac Newton. He said:
Sam Harris gave a talk in which he made mention of Issac Newton. He said:
It was in the beginning in the summer of 1665 Isaac Newton went into isolation to dodge the outbreak of plague was incidentally laying waste of the pious men and women of England and when he had emerged from his solitude, he had invented the integral differential calculus. He had discovered the laws of universal gravitation and motion. He had set the field of optics on its foundation and many scientists think this is the most awe inspiring display of human intelligence in the history of human intelligence. And here no one is tempted to describe this to a divine agency, we know that these accomplishments were affected by a mortal...Fantastically well-put. Indeed, this December 25, I will remember to celebrate Sir Newton's birthday along with my winter solstice.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Lingqiu Recollections Part 4
This is getting a bit difficult. Lingqiu recollections: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
Woke at 8am on the 24th and ate breakfast provided by the hotel with Jon. The food had a country air to it but it was decent. We then met with Tang Jie along with Yao Yi and Xiaorui in Tang Jie’s room. Tang Jie as well as the other members working in the Youth Enterprise Fund live in the hotel and each have their own rooms. His room was nicely set up and felt cozy.
We went over original documents of the Youth Enterprise Fund including the manifesto, loan history, loan applications, and annual reports.
Woke at 8am on the 24th and ate breakfast provided by the hotel with Jon. The food had a country air to it but it was decent. We then met with Tang Jie along with Yao Yi and Xiaorui in Tang Jie’s room. Tang Jie as well as the other members working in the Youth Enterprise Fund live in the hotel and each have their own rooms. His room was nicely set up and felt cozy.
We went over original documents of the Youth Enterprise Fund including the manifesto, loan history, loan applications, and annual reports.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Lingqiu Recollections Part 3
Notes on Lingqiu Part 1, Part 2
During the roughly five hour train ride over, Tang Jie talked to us about other things which I will try to recall as much as I can:
The disillusionment of many migrant workers from the countryside is a severe type of mental and emotional trauma that many people underestimate. For example, the stories of the Dagongmei who leave their villages to go work in factories and returning home years later much richer is not a good representation of reality. It is true that they have more money once they return but the price they had to pay submitting themselves to harsh working conditions is a great one. Also, their interaction with the outside world, also a far richer world, may have impressed on the a distorted sense of reality, wealth, and social juctice. Tang Jie worries about the mental health of many of these migrant workers and their children, especially with respect to their underlying hatred for the nature of the society. Perhaps the kindling for a revolution?
We arrive at Lingqiu at around 2am on the 23 of December. The night sky was starlit before we pulled into the station. Once we did, we found out that it was not as clear in the city. This is due to the pollution coming from the various mining and mining related industries that take place outside the town.
We are ushered into the our hotel at around 2:30am near the center of the city. At first glance, Lingqiu does not seem to be as poor of a place as I had imagined. Judging from the look of the downtown area, it could have been analogous to small townAmerica
During the roughly five hour train ride over, Tang Jie talked to us about other things which I will try to recall as much as I can:
The disillusionment of many migrant workers from the countryside is a severe type of mental and emotional trauma that many people underestimate. For example, the stories of the Dagongmei who leave their villages to go work in factories and returning home years later much richer is not a good representation of reality. It is true that they have more money once they return but the price they had to pay submitting themselves to harsh working conditions is a great one. Also, their interaction with the outside world, also a far richer world, may have impressed on the a distorted sense of reality, wealth, and social juctice. Tang Jie worries about the mental health of many of these migrant workers and their children, especially with respect to their underlying hatred for the nature of the society.
We are ushered into the our hotel at around 2:30am near the center of the city. At first glance, Lingqiu does not seem to be as poor of a place as I had imagined. Judging from the look of the downtown area, it could have been analogous to small town
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Getting back (if you must)
Disdain is the best revenge. What better way of getting back than to hold the offending object in contempt? It doesn't cost much to do it and it can be very satisfying. My version of this is to hyper-depreciate the importance/value of anything I cannot obtain. Jack up that discount rate!
On China: I spoke at length with two friends today. I'm surprised by how deeply they buy pro-China. They gave me some good points to think about. Am I just trying too hard to be a contrarian?
Bioinformatics exam~~ HW++ Excelsior!
On China: I spoke at length with two friends today. I'm surprised by how deeply they buy pro-China. They gave me some good points to think about. Am I just trying too hard to be a contrarian?
Bioinformatics exam~~ HW++ Excelsior!
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Just for fun... break the spell
Tell me about yourself
Noodles
Tell me about a time when you demonstrated leadership
So I organized a 40-man raid for my guild with my level 70 dwarven paladin in the Naxxramas instance...
. What would you do?
Actually, I ask myself "what would a free man do?"
Noodles
Tell me about a time when you demonstrated leadership
So I organized a 40-man raid for my guild with my level 70 dwarven paladin in the Naxxramas instance...
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Roar! (Is this what they call... skill?)
Two numbers: 19.10% and 10.16%
Note the date. You figure.
Note the date. You figure.
Lingqiu Recollections Part 2
This is the second installment of my recollections of the field study trip I undertook last year in December during my semester abroad in China. Here is Part 1
Shanxi province is known for its vast deposits of coal. Lingqiu is no different; however what makes it special is its stock mines of other minerals, some of which are precious metal mines such as gold and silver. What prevented the development of these mines in the past was that there was an air force division stationed in Lingqiu which during the tenure of Jiang Zemin was disbanded as a part of a greater plan to reduce the size of the PLA. After the air force division left, the mountain area which they occupied finally became open to prospecting. This along with some of the air force’s own mines was the beginning of the mining boom in the town of Lingqiu.
The booming mining industry alone was not what relieved the fiscal poverty of the local government. An ingenious way to tax these enterprises was set up. At the beginning, companies were taxed by the cartload of ore they extracted from the mines (they still are, but the revenues from this form of taxation is minor). Using a self-reporting system, tax revenue still did not rise very much because firms would systematically underreport the amount of ore they mined and hence escape taxation. Therefore, someone came up with the idea of taxing companies by the amount of electricity they consumed. It was this idea that changed the revenue flow completely. The money really began to come in. NOTE: Fader would love this as it is another example of how measuring observable behavior trumps all.
While the government has escaped fiscal poverty with annual tax revenues of about 300M RMB, the majority of the populace have not. The mining industry although booming, has not provided the number of jobs for the locals as one would imagine because of the dangerous nature of the work. Most workers in the mines come from even poorer places in China such as in the countryside of Yunan and Sichuan province. NOTE: The tax regime based on electricity consumption might have been a brilliant idea, but it may have also inadvertently made working in the mines more dangerous as companies cuts corners on worker safety in order to save on power costs.
Shanxi province is known for its vast deposits of coal. Lingqiu is no different; however what makes it special is its stock mines of other minerals, some of which are precious metal mines such as gold and silver. What prevented the development of these mines in the past was that there was an air force division stationed in Lingqiu which during the tenure of Jiang Zemin was disbanded as a part of a greater plan to reduce the size of the PLA. After the air force division left, the mountain area which they occupied finally became open to prospecting. This along with some of the air force’s own mines was the beginning of the mining boom in the town of Lingqiu.
The booming mining industry alone was not what relieved the fiscal poverty of the local government. An ingenious way to tax these enterprises was set up. At the beginning, companies were taxed by the cartload of ore they extracted from the mines (they still are, but the revenues from this form of taxation is minor). Using a self-reporting system, tax revenue still did not rise very much because firms would systematically underreport the amount of ore they mined and hence escape taxation. Therefore, someone came up with the idea of taxing companies by the amount of electricity they consumed. It was this idea that changed the revenue flow completely. The money really began to come in. NOTE: Fader would love this as it is another example of how measuring observable behavior trumps all.
While the government has escaped fiscal poverty with annual tax revenues of about 300M RMB, the majority of the populace have not. The mining industry although booming, has not provided the number of jobs for the locals as one would imagine because of the dangerous nature of the work. Most workers in the mines come from even poorer places in China such as in the countryside of Yunan and Sichuan province. NOTE: The tax regime based on electricity consumption might have been a brilliant idea, but it may have also inadvertently made working in the mines more dangerous as companies cuts corners on worker safety in order to save on power costs.
Monday, October 08, 2007
Lingqiu Recollections Part 1
I'm missing some critical details. I'm going to try to fill these in after asking around.
I set out for Lingqiu on December 22,2006. Leading the way was a junior executive for the local Youth Enterprise Development Fund named Tang Jie. He is a recent graduate of Beijing University and has only been serving in this capacity for about 6 months. Also in my party were Jon Richter – a fellow exchange student in the Huntsman Program, Yao Yi – the teaching assistant from the class Rural Finance in China with Professor Wang Shuguan, Xiaorui – a friend of Yao Yi who is also in the Rural Finance class. Two other junior cadres accompanied us on the way down. Li “Jumbo” Jiangbo was a graduate of Tsinghua University and serves at a neighboring village. The other is _____ who is part of the Lingqiu group along with Tang Jie.
We left for the subway station at Wudaokou at around 7:30pm. At around 7:55 we met up with Yao Yi and Xiaorui. Tang Jie came along shortly afterwards. From there we journeyed to the Beijing Station which was about a 45 minute ride. The train we took was the N201 bound for Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province, although we will be getting off before then.
Observation: Tang Jie and the other cadres were carrying a lot of stuff. I later found out that among other necessities, these bag included medicine for needy locals. Aside from that, they were traveling pretty light as were the other members of our field study team.
On the train, Tang Jie talked about our destination. Lingqiu falls in a governance district that is an officially designated poverty zone by the central government. The designation of these zones are not done annually, but at an irregular basis. In recent history there were two inspections for determining poverty zones with 1 in the 1990s and the two being 8 years apart. Lingqiu was designated a poverty zone on both counts.
The criteria for qualifying as a poverty zone generally falls under three categories. First, there is an official designation of poverty based on the income of the local government. This is judged as tax revenue per capita amongst other measures. Second, there is the number of people who fall bellow the absolute poverty level. The U.N. measures poverty by 1 dollar a day or 2 dollars a day levels. China has a stricter guideline by defining absolute poverty as income that falls below 500 RMB a year. QUESTION: The RMB measure is clearly stricter if using market exchange rates, but what about using PPP? Tan Jie informs us that the city of Lingqiu has around 50,000 people who fall below this line of absolute poverty. The third criteria __________. Not all three criteria need to be met in order for a place to be designated a poverty zone. There is a degree of arbitrary judgment involved in making the call.
At the first inspection, Lingqiu met all three criteria. In the second inspection, Lingqiu which has in the time period in between developed a lucrative mining industry, met only the second criteria. Tang Jie describes this as the local government having escaped poverty but not the citizens. He talks about this transition of the tax revenue in detail which I will try to reproduce in the next post.
I set out for Lingqiu on December 22,2006. Leading the way was a junior executive for the local Youth Enterprise Development Fund named Tang Jie. He is a recent graduate of Beijing University and has only been serving in this capacity for about 6 months. Also in my party were Jon Richter – a fellow exchange student in the Huntsman Program, Yao Yi – the teaching assistant from the class Rural Finance in China with Professor Wang Shuguan, Xiaorui – a friend of Yao Yi who is also in the Rural Finance class. Two other junior cadres accompanied us on the way down. Li “Jumbo” Jiangbo was a graduate of Tsinghua University and serves at a neighboring village. The other is _____ who is part of the Lingqiu group along with Tang Jie.
We left for the subway station at Wudaokou at around 7:30pm. At around 7:55 we met up with Yao Yi and Xiaorui. Tang Jie came along shortly afterwards. From there we journeyed to the Beijing Station which was about a 45 minute ride. The train we took was the N201 bound for Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province, although we will be getting off before then.
Observation: Tang Jie and the other cadres were carrying a lot of stuff. I later found out that among other necessities, these bag included medicine for needy locals. Aside from that, they were traveling pretty light as were the other members of our field study team.
On the train, Tang Jie talked about our destination. Lingqiu falls in a governance district that is an officially designated poverty zone by the central government. The designation of these zones are not done annually, but at an irregular basis. In recent history there were two inspections for determining poverty zones with 1 in the 1990s and the two being 8 years apart. Lingqiu was designated a poverty zone on both counts.
The criteria for qualifying as a poverty zone generally falls under three categories. First, there is an official designation of poverty based on the income of the local government. This is judged as tax revenue per capita amongst other measures. Second, there is the number of people who fall bellow the absolute poverty level. The U.N. measures poverty by 1 dollar a day or 2 dollars a day levels. China has a stricter guideline by defining absolute poverty as income that falls below 500 RMB a year. QUESTION: The RMB measure is clearly stricter if using market exchange rates, but what about using PPP? Tan Jie informs us that the city of Lingqiu has around 50,000 people who fall below this line of absolute poverty. The third criteria __________. Not all three criteria need to be met in order for a place to be designated a poverty zone. There is a degree of arbitrary judgment involved in making the call.
At the first inspection, Lingqiu met all three criteria. In the second inspection, Lingqiu which has in the time period in between developed a lucrative mining industry, met only the second criteria. Tang Jie describes this as the local government having escaped poverty but not the citizens. He talks about this transition of the tax revenue in detail which I will try to reproduce in the next post.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Reference, the first of many
Find the joint density function for n i.i.d. Poisson distributed random variables. Find the conditional joint density function when their sum is known.
Proof
For the case n = 2, the pmf of S = X1+ X2 when S = s is:
Proof
For the case n = 2, the pmf of S = X1+ X2 when S = s is:
, Independence
, multiply through by s!/s!
, used the binomial theorem
Use induction reasoning to show that this would be true for all positive integer values of n. The generalized formula is:
Finding the joint conditional probability when S = s and n = 2
Independence
, cancel and regroup terms
Use induction to generalize large positive integer values of n to get the multinomial distribution.
The online equation editor used is the freely available Roger's Online Equation Editor.
That the conditional joint probabilities would be a multinomial when the sum of the random variables is known is not too surprising. If you think hard enough about it, it makes perfect sense.Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Tuesday nights
Dan and I slug through bioinformatics homework every Tuesday night. In the middle of a question, he looks up at me and said, "I spent over ten years doing math with numbers, only to spend the last four doing it all with letters. "
That's going on the list of quotable quotes!
Also, I've made some updates on XYJ. I'm figuring out the backdrop.
That's going on the list of quotable quotes!
Also, I've made some updates on XYJ. I'm figuring out the backdrop.
Monday, October 01, 2007
Read: Desperation
During my freshman year, John McCain spoke at an event along with Howard Dean here on campus. The event was billed as two mavericks sharing their views on politics in a casual settling. I understood and appreciated what both speakers had to say and walked away feeling pretty positively about them both afterwards. Oh, how this has changed!
John McCain screwed up BIG TIME campaigning in NH when he said:
"I would probably have to say yes, that the Constitution established the United States of America as a Christian nation... What I do mean to say is the United States of America was founded on the values of Judeo-Christian values, which were translated by our founding fathers which is basically the rights of human dignity and human rights."
Now, I know the guy's campaign isn't doing very well, but has it come to this??
The United States of America is a secular democracy committed to human dignity and human rights. To say otherwise perpetuates an untruth and stokes the ambitions of the dominionists. I am not impressed. Then again, he's just a political creature dancing to a tune. His body is not his own.
John McCain screwed up BIG TIME campaigning in NH when he said:
"I would probably have to say yes, that the Constitution established the United States of America as a Christian nation... What I do mean to say is the United States of America was founded on the values of Judeo-Christian values, which were translated by our founding fathers which is basically the rights of human dignity and human rights."
Now, I know the guy's campaign isn't doing very well, but has it come to this??
The United States of America is a secular democracy committed to human dignity and human rights. To say otherwise perpetuates an untruth and stokes the ambitions of the dominionists. I am not impressed. Then again, he's just a political creature dancing to a tune. His body is not his own.
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